Housing Market Outlook For 2019

Dated: 12/17/2018

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Housing Market expected to stabilize in 2019 according to Fannie Mae 

Economic growth is expected to slow in 2019 leading to stabilized home sales and mortgage rates (yawn) . That means it is going to be a hum drum year. I guess that is good after seeing the market go up and up and up for the the last 10 years. It's nice to finally be able to negotiate good deals for the buyers. It's also been great helping many sellers cash out on their home and move into either a larger home or to a different state where the price of living is a lot cheaper. 

So , Fannie Mae backs 9 out of 10 mortgages in the US, so their data is legit. They are the ones financing the mortgage companies you get your home loan from . So they area always have their thumb on the pulse because they need to know if it is safe to invest in mortgages or not. 

I remember when the market crashed in 2007, at one time they stopped all loans from closing for two weeks because things were getting so bad and spinning out of control. The first sign I saw was the lack of loan options. All of sudden, no one wanted to lend money.  Then a year later the crash happened. 

Right now, they are not only still lending money but they are getting pretty creative about it! There are many different loan programs that have made a come back like the No Tax Return Loan - only bank statements. The Seller Buy Down which provides a lower rate for the first 3 years for a buyer (For Example Year one your rate could be 2%, then year to 3% , year 3- would be 4% and then it would stay there for the next 30. 

According to Fannie Mae , purchase mortgage origination(s) are expected to climb in 2019 but a substantial decline in refinanced mortgage is to be expected (Duh many people have fixed rates at 3% who would refi out of that!) The mortgage rates should stabilize (Which is funny because the Fed announced we will have 4 more interest rate hikes in 2019) and strong growth is expected next year as well. 

This is where my Dad would say- those stats are National- think Local. 

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Lets talk about the California Association of Realtors. They are kind of like a Union. An association designed to guide us realtors in our successful paths. Advise on how to advise clients and the general public. What do they say about 2019? 

Currently almost 50% of the people who live in Chula Vista Rent. That is over 200,000 residents who are not collecting any benefits and throwing their money out the window.  Almost 60% of the residents in San Diego are renters..that's even scarier! But on the upside- maybe its a good time to purchase a property to rent out? 

The biggest gains can be found at the low end of the market. Homes and condos valued at $300,00-$500,000 are seeing some amazing jumps in price meanwhile the larger homes for the folks who can afford properties over $1,000,000 are seeing lower appreciations in rates but the values are still going up. 

Car suggests the same as Fannie Mae. We will see stability next year , buyers can take their time in negotiating- the only pressing issue will be the rising interest rates which could affect their affordability.  The outlook does not show any type of a market downturn and to be honest there really isn't one now. 

When I look at the data I see price reductions on homes that were priced too high in the first place and as a result longer market times. There are still buyers buying and as a survivor from the worse housing market crash in history- let me tell you that when the market goes down for real- No One Buys anything. 

So long story short- don't be a a victim of negativity. The news is out there no longer to provide information but to obtain viewers and clicks and nothing sells unless it is sensationalized. No one wants to read _ everything will be alright because that would not sell ad space on newspaper websites. Everyone wants to hear that the world is burning or the market is crashing but the truth is... it's not because if it was trust me You Would Know! 


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